After two years in which the covid epidemic has wreaked havoc on health systems and personal freedoms around the globe, experts are warning that it is too early yet to tell whether the Omicron variant will become a less virulent respiratory virus than variants such as Delta, let alone whether it may herald a pathway out of the pandemic.
Although early data from South Africa, the country that first reported the Omicron strain, has offered some cause for hope, showing that the majority of cases have been overwhelmingly mild, many scientists say there has not been enough real life experience of how the virus behaves to start making any bold assumptions.
Dr. Salim Abdool Karim, an infectious diseases epidemiologist who is helping coordinate South Africa’s response to Covid-19, believes that one has to be very careful in overinterpreting the data.
“I want to caution that we’ve only known about this for about a week so it’s still very early days, in that severe cases usually take longer. They occur in weeks two, three and four. So it may be that severe cases will follow later.”
A recent report showed that the Omicron variant carries a portion of genetic material very similar to segments seen in one of the types of coronaviruses that causes the common colds — one called HCoV-229E.
A number of researchers have speculated that this may indicate the variant is starting to look more like a nuisance virus than a virulent killer.
But Robert Garry of the Tulane University School of Medicine believes it’s a small piece of genetic material and not necessarily one that’s on a part of the virus that would affect its virulence.
The new variant has around 50 mutations — more than double its predecessor, Delta — including many on its spike, the viral protein that vaccines or illness train the body’s immune system to fight with antibodies.
Dr Celine Gounder, an epidemiologist from the NYU Grossman School of Medicine, believes it will be necessary to understand much more about the Omicron strain before drawing any firm conclusions.
“There are three main characteristics that we worry about with viruses like Omicron,” said
“First of all, is it more infectious or contagious?
“Number two, is it more virulent or less virulent? In other words, does it cause less-severe disease in individuals who are infected?
“And, number three, is it immune-evading? And this is one characteristic of Omicron that is concerning.”
Many infectious disease experts have been predicting that the novel coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, would eventually evolve into a milder form that joins the annual mix of seasonal respiratory viruses.
But Michael Worobey, who heads the department of evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona believes it is too early to tell if the Omicron variant will move down this path.
“The idea that this variant is milder is just pure speculation. There is no reason to think it is,” he says.
Source – CNN, ABC News Australia